A Week in the Market (12.07 - 18.07): OPEC and a Flow of Statistics
Another week of July will bring about not only the updated info about the commodity market by OPEC but also describe the opportunities for growth in the group of risky assets.
Brent: OPEC report will give new landmarks to the market
At the new week of July, we will see a new monthly OPEC report on the oil market. The demand for crude oil might grow, which would be quite logical. However, until OPEC+ makes some important decisions on oil production, Brent will not rise above 73-76 USD per barrel.
China: the country will give some signals
This week, Chinese statistics will be abundant. Among all data, take a look at the GDP in Q2 (it is expected to rise by 8% y/y, which is a marvellous result); retail sales in June, and industrial production. The stronger the statistics, the better risky assets will feel.
Central banks: only forward
This week, Central banks of New Zealand, Canada, Turkey, Chile, and South Korea will have meetings. Generally speaking, the structure of their credit and monetary policy should stay without major changes. The capital market needs to keep the monetary policy stable: if so, risky assets will keep growing.
JPY: the Bank of Japan will make decisions on the interest rate
This week, the Bank of Japan will have a session and make decisions on the monetary policy and the interest rate. Most likely, the price of crediting will remain at -10% annually. Investors will wonder whether the BoJ will change forecasts on the economy and credit and monetary policy; and what the Bank will do with colossal volumes of bought securities. The JPY will react if some unexpected comments sound.
USD: the devil in the details
This week, among other things, the USA will publish inflation statistics and retail sales in June. In the first case, we expect growth by 0.5% m/m (4.0% y/y), which is huge for the USA. The speeding up of the inflation pressure is likely to remind about the winding up of the stimulation program, regardless of the Fed's rhetoric. In the second case, the indicator might have dropped by 0.4% m/m, which would be the continyation of the downtrend in retail sales. Volatility in the USD will clearly grow.